Predict09.eu is a prediction of the outcome of the June 2009 European Parliament elections and the resulting make-up of the next European Parliament. The prediction is based on a statistical model of the performance of national parties in European Parliament elections, developed by three leading political scientists: Simon Hix (London School of Economics), Michael Marsh (Trinity College Dublin), and Nick Vivyan (London School of Economics).
These updated predictions (after the launch on 7 April 2009) use new polling data and up-to-date information about which parties and coalitions will be standing in the elections. A new section has also been added to the website, on the overall analysis page, on the possible effect of low voter turnout on the predictions. The predictions will be updated every two weeks until the elections on 4-7 June.
Executive Summary
The European People’s Party will be the largest group in the new European Parliament, with approximately 262 seats, which is a decrease in percentage terms, from 37% to 35% of the MEPs. The Socialist group will win approximately 194 seats, which is a decrease in percentage terms too, from 27% to 26% of the MEPs. The Alliance of Liberals and Democrats for Europe (ALDE) will secure approximately 82 seats.
The new European Parliament will be more fragmented than the current one, with more seats for smaller parties. A new European Conservative group, composed of the British Conservatives and their allies, may be the fourth largest group, with about 53 seats. The Greens (G/EFA) are likely to be the fifth largest group, with about 50 seats (up from 43). There will be approximately the same number of anti-European and Extreme Right MEPs (about 52 in total) in the new Parliament as in the current Parliament, but this will be a slight increase in percentage terms because of the reduction in the overall size of the Parliament.
The combined forces of the centre-right will continue to be large the centre-left: with about 43% for the centre-right and 39% for the centre-left, compared to 42% for the right and 38% for the left in the previous parliament.
On the basis of our predicted make-up of the next European Parliament, José Barroso has a good chance of being re-elected as Commission President. However, this assumes that the Liberals (ALDE) would back an EPP-Conservative coalition in support of Barroso, which is not a foregone conclusion. An alternative “progressive” coalition, of Liberals, Socialists, Greens, and Radical Left MEPs could still block Barroso’s re-election.
Note: The total number of MEPs will fall from 785 in the current European Parliament to 736 in the new European Parliament elected in June.
More on www.Predict09.eu
*Compare with earlier data below:
